Most investment advice is garbage.
Every day, you're hit with hundreds of stock market predictions that never come true. Generic tips everyone already knows. People trying to sell you the next big thing.
But some investors actually know what they're doing. They've made real money. They've survived market crashes. And they share their best thinking on Substack.
These 10 articles will teach you how successful investors really think. Each one will either help you make money or stop you from losing it.
Here are my notes from each article:
1. From Zero to Stock Hero by Lord Fed
The best trading advice:
Hold trades longer than you think
Trust your gut
Buy into strength
What stocks really are:
When you buy a stock, you own part of a real business. Not just a number that moves up and down.
You get voting rights and maybe dividends. But if the company fails, you're last in line to get paid back.
Why stock prices move:
Short-term: Emotions, news, rumors, fund flows
Long-term: Company earnings and growth
The market is a popularity contest daily, but a weighing machine over years.
Important stock price drivers:
Earnings growth: More profits usually mean higher prices
P/E ratios: How much people pay for each dollar of profit
Interest rates: Low rates make stocks more attractive
Supply and demand: More buyers than sellers pushes prices up
Why the Fed controls everything:
Interest rates are like gravity for stocks. Low rates make everything float higher. High rates pull everything down.
When rates go from 0% to 5%, expensive growth stocks get crushed. Value stocks and bonds become more attractive.
Market indexes explained:
S&P 500: 500 biggest US companies. But the top 10 companies control 30% of the index.
Nasdaq 100: Mostly big tech companies. When tech does well, Nasdaq soars.
Russell 2000: Small companies. When this beats the S&P 500, it means risk-taking is popular.
The Magnificent 7:
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia now control over 30% of the S&P 500.
When they go up, the whole market looks good. When they fall, everything suffers.
Earnings season:
Four times per year, companies report their profits. This moves stocks more than anything else.
Watch for:
Earnings per share (did they beat expectations?)
Revenue growth
Future guidance
Management tone on conference calls
Common trading mistakes:
Chasing hot stocks after they've already run up
Turning short trades into long investments when they go against you
Revenge trading after losses
If you can't sleep, your position is too big
Cutting winners early and holding losers too long
2. How to Value a Stock! By Dividendology
Warren Buffett says paying too much for even a great company can ruin your returns for years. You need to know what a stock is worth before you buy it.
Here are 7 ways to value a stock, from simple to advanced:
1. Dividend yield theory:
Compare a stock's current dividend yield to its long-term average.
Higher than average = possibly undervalued
Lower than average = possibly overvalued
Problems: Ignores business fundamentals and future growth.
2. Historical multiples:
Compare current valuation ratios to historical averages.
Example: Microsoft trades at 35x earnings vs 31x historical average = 12% overvalued.
3. Bogle's valuation:
Estimates future returns using this formula:
Expected Return = Earnings Growth + Dividends/Buybacks ± Multiple Changes
4. Comparable multiples:
Value the stock based on similar companies.
Find the average P/E ratio of peer companies. Apply it to your stock's earnings.
5. Dividend discount model
Values stocks based on future dividend payments and growth.
Works best for mature companies that pay steady dividends.
6. Discounted cash flow (DCF):
Projects all future cash flows and discounts them to today's value.
Most comprehensive method. Accounts for cash, debt, and growth projections.
7. Reverse DCF:
Instead of asking "What's this worth?" ask "How much growth is already priced in?"
If you think growth will be higher than what's priced in, the stock is cheap.
3. My Quality Investment Philosophy by Compounding Quality
Most investing strategies make you buy and sell constantly. Quality investing is different. You buy great companies once and never sell them.
The strategy:
Buy good companies
Don't overpay
Do nothing
How to find quality companies (7 things to look for):
1. Wide brand moat: Look for companies that already won their market. They have pricing power. Competitors can't touch them.
Examples: S&P Global, Moody's, Nike, Visa, Mastercard.
2. Management with skin in the game: Managers should own lots of company stock. Family-owned businesses often work best.
Examples: LVMH, L'Oréal, Copart.
3. Low capital needs: Great companies don't need much money to grow. They spend less than 5% of sales on equipment.
Examples: Domino's Pizza, Blackrock, ADP.
4. High ROI: Companies should reinvest profits to grow at high rates. Look for 20%+ returns on invested capital.
Examples: Sherwin-Williams, Pool Corporation, Adobe.
5. High profits: Companies should turn at least 15% of sales into cash. Higher is better.
Examples: IDEXX, Johnson & Johnson, Fortinet.
6. Growing markets: Invest in companies riding big trends like cybersecurity, obesity drugs, or data centers.
Examples: Novo Nordisk, Fortinet, Blackrock.
7. Fair price: Don't overpay. But quality matters more than getting a cheap price.
4. Mini Buffett Stocks by Compounding Quality
Warren Buffett is the world's best investor. But we have one advantage: we can buy small companies that he can't.
What are Mini-Buffett stocks?
Small, high-quality companies where owners still hold big stakes. These could grow into huge winners.
Why incentives matter:
When managers own lots of company stock, they work harder to make it succeed.
How to find Mini-Buffett stocks:
High insider ownership: Managers own at least 8% of the company
Small companies: Under $2 billion market cap
Quality businesses: Profitable with good returns
Out of 8,000 US stocks, only 512 have high insider ownership. Only 323 are small caps.
Why small caps are best:
Buffett can't buy them anymore (his fund is too big)
Less competition from big investors
Small caps beat large caps by 3.4% over time
These small companies with owner-managers could be the next big winners.
(Read the article to see 5 examples of "Mini-Buffett" stocks)
5. My Tiny Titan Stock Screener by Compounding Quality
Smart investors look for small companies that could become big winners. They're called "Tiny Titans."
Here's how to find them:
Company worth less than $3 billion
Debt less than 3 times yearly earnings
No new shares created in 3 years (dilution hurts investors)
Keep 10% or more of every dollar as profit
Return 15% or more on invested money
Sales growing 9% per year (5-year average)
Earnings growing 11% per year (5-year average)
Over 250 companies meet all these rules.
(Read the article to see a list of 30 real-life examples)
6. Why Dividend Investing? By Compounding Dividends
There are two types of companies:
Some companies need to reinvest all their money to grow.
Others have already won and can pay cash to shareholders.
Winners that pay dividends:
Coca-Cola: Pays $8 billion yearly to shareholders
McDonald's: Pays $5 billion yearly
Bank of America: Pays $8 billion yearly
These companies sell perfect products that don't need much reinvestment.
Dividends matter more than you think:
From 1993-2022, the S&P 500 gained 1,481% total.
700% came from dividends
781% came from stock price gains
You'd miss half your potential gains without dividends!
How to pick "good" dividend stocks:
Payout ratio under 60%
Dividend yield above 1.5%
Dividend growth above 8%
Revenue growth above inflation
7. 5 Things About Dividend Investing in Less Than 5 Minutes by Compounding Dividends
Dividend investing means buying stocks that pay you regular cash payments. These companies share their profits with shareholders.
Here's what you need to know:
1. Look for high-yield opportunities
Some good dividend stocks now pay more than usual. This could mean they're cheap to buy.
All have grown dividends for 10+ years
All pay higher yields than normal
2. Get paid every month
You can get dividend payments all year long. Pick stocks that pay in different months.
January: Stock A pays
February: Stock B pays
March: Stock C pays
Keep going for 12 months of income
3. Be patient
Dividend investing takes time but gives you:
Rising income each year
Protection during market crashes
Real wealth over time
5 common mistakes to avoid:
Very high dividend payments often mean the company is in trouble. High yield can equal high risk.
Don't put all your money in one company or industry. Spread it around to protect yourself.
Check how much of company profits go to dividends. If it's too high, the dividend might get cut.
Dividend growth matters more than starting yield, especially for long-term investors. A 3% yield that grows beats a 6% yield that stays flat.
Don't just buy stocks for dividends. Buy good companies that happen to pay dividends.
Example stock: OpenText Corporation
This company makes software to manage business information.
Key numbers:
Profit margin: 12.6%
PE ratio: 7.4x (cheap)
Dividend yield: 3.5%
Payout ratio: 42.2% (safe)
Dividend investing is slow but steady. Pick quality companies, spread payments across months, and avoid common mistakes.
8. Essential Rules for Living Off Dividends by MaxDividends
Most people wait for the "perfect time" to start investing. That time never comes.
Max waited 6 years. He kept saying he'd invest later. Finally realized there is no right time.
His strategy is simple: Buy stocks from companies that raise their dividends every year for 15+ years.
How to pick good companies:
Sales must grow every year
Profits must grow every year
Company makes real money after expenses
Dividends are safe (company can afford them)
Low debt
What to do when dividends change:
Company raises dividend? Keep it.
Company cuts dividend? Sell it. Buy another one.
The author is 40. He already lives off his dividend income. His passive income covers all his expenses.
How the "MaxDividends Strategy" works:
Pick the best dividend stocks
Buy them and hold them
Reinvest the money you get
Your income grows automatically
Simple? Yes. But most people won't do it.
9. My Net-Net Strategy by DirtCheapStocks
The author, Dirt, believes if they could only use one investment strategy forever, it would be net-nets. This strategy beats the market consistently.
What Is a Net-Net?
A net-net is a stock trading for less than its liquidation value.
Formula: Cash + Receivables + Inventory - All Debts = Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)
If NCAV is higher than the stock's market value, it's a net-net. The company is worth more dead than alive.
Why it works:
Net-nets are incredibly cheap by definition. Most companies can't even achieve positive NCAV because they have long-term assets (like buildings) that don't count, but all their debts do count.
The problem is most Net-Nets are trash:
Out of 100 net-nets:
75 are dying biotech companies burning cash
15 have worthless inventory that only works for their specific business
7 have wrong numbers due to recent disasters
3 are real opportunities
What to look for (The good 3%):
Simple, old business: Around 20+ years, easy to understand (like making mailboxes)
Little or no debt: Debt adds risk we don't need
Consistent profits: Makes money most years for the last 10 years
Lots of cash: Cash is better than receivables or inventory
Honest management: They don't need to be smart, just not crooks
Real example: "Wesvac"
70-year-old company making water heaters. Trading at 78% of liquidation value.
Profitable for 20 straight years
CEO owns 50% of shares
Sitting on lots of cash
Stock up 50% in 12 months
The investing strategy:
1. Find net-nets that meet the criteria
2. Buy the stock
3. Hold for at least 1 year
4. After 1 year, check if it's still a net-net
5. If yes, keep holding. If not, sell.
Net-nets work because you buy profitable companies for less than their cash value. Most are junk, but the few good ones can make you rich.
10. How Investors Build Wealth in Real Estate by Andreas Mueller
Most people think real estate investing is just about collecting rent checks. That's wrong. There are 5 ways to make money, and cash flow is just one of them.
1. Property values go up
Buy properties in growing cities. Look for:
Growing population
New businesses
Low unemployment
Future developments
Example: Buy a house for $500,000. It grows to $700,000. That's a 40% return.
With leverage (25% down payment): You put down $125,000. Property gains $200,000. Your return is 160% on your money.
2. Tenants pay your mortgage
Your tenants pay rent. Rent pays the mortgage. Every month, you owe less on the loan and own more of the property.
Starts small (1% per year) but grows bigger over time (3%, 5%, 15%). After 30 years, you own the whole property free and clear.
3. Add value through renovations
Buy a fixer-upper. Renovate it. Increase its value.
Spend $100,000 on renovations, property should be worth $150,000 more. That's a 50% return on renovation costs.
Example: Buy for $500,000. Spend $100,000 on renovations. Property now worth $675,000. You made $75,000 profit.
4. Government gives you tax breaks
The IRS lets you deduct 3.636% of your property's value each year for 27.5 years.
$500,000 property = $14,544 tax deduction yearly. This shields your rental income from taxes.
Note: Your home where you live doesn't count. Only rental properties get this benefit.
5. Monthly rent money
Money left over each month after paying all expenses: mortgage, taxes, insurance, repairs, management.
Cash flow starts small but grows over time as you raise rents. Your mortgage payment stays the same for 30 years.
After 30 years, no more mortgage payment = massive cash flow increase.
BONUS #1: Volume Profile Part 1 by Tic Toc Trading
Markets are messy. Anything can happen anytime.
Traders use many different tools to predict markets. Most don't work because they use old data while markets look forward.
So, we need a framework that will help us:
Win more often than we lose.
Win bigger when right, lose smaller when wrong.
Tic Toc Trading uses "Volume Profiling."
How "Volume Profiling" works:
Volume Profiling shows where trading happened. It answers:
How much volume traded at each price?
How much time was spent at each price?
Think of a bell curve. The fat middle shows where most trading happened. The thin edges show where little trading happened.
What the Volume means:
Lack of volume at lows = Demand (buyers waiting)
Lack of volume at highs = Supply (sellers waiting)
In chaotic markets, only reference points matter. Good references make you money. Bad references lose you money.
BONUS #2: Interest Rates Primer by Capital Flows
Interest rates control everything in finance. Nations rise and fall because of interest rates. They're the key that turns the entire financial system.
Most people think stocks are where the money is made. But the smartest traders focus on rates and currencies.
What you need to track:
Nominal Rates: Regular interest rates (3 month, 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year)
Real Rates: Interest rates minus inflation
Breakevens: What the market thinks inflation will be
Forward Rates: What rates will be in the future
Track spreads between all these rates:
3 month vs 2 year
2 year vs 10 year
5 year vs 30 year
And many more
Inflation data:
CPI: Consumer Price Index
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures
PPI: Producer Price Index
The Federal Reserve watches these closely. The market moves big on these releases.
How to analyze interest rates:
Run basic math on the data (averages, changes)
Focus on the biggest movers in each report
Try to predict what the numbers will be before release
Key events that affect rates:
All inflation reports (CPI, PCE, PPI)
Jobs report (NFP)
Federal Reserve meetings
Treasury bond auctions
Look for opportunities when the market is wrong about:
How fast things will change
How likely something is to happen
What the Federal Reserve will do
(The best trades happen when everyone thinks something is certain, but it's not.)
A simple strategy to follow:
Watch the short end: (3 month to 2 year rates) vs inflation
Ask: Does the market's pricing make sense given inflation trends?
Use events: to confirm or deny your view
Start simple: Learn short-term rates before long-term rates
The traders who understand rates best make the most money.
What to do next:
These 12 articles give you the foundation every serious investor needs.
But this is just the beginning.
Next week, I'll share the 5 biggest retirement mistakes that destroy wealth. You'll learn what 90% of people get wrong about saving for retirement.
After that? The simple 3-step system that turns $500 per month into $1 million by age 65.
Then I'll reveal the retirement accounts most people ignore but shouldn't.
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